Avaliação de informações relacionadas a combustíveis no Distrito Metropolitano de Quito para modelagem e simulação de incêndios florestais, estudo de caso: Incêndio no morro do Atacazo
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Resumo
O Distrito Metropolitano de Quito (DMQ) não possui todas as informações necessárias para orientar as estratégias de manejo de incêndios florestais com base em modelos e simulações. Este trabalho avaliou o uso de informações dos incêndios florestais do MDQ obtidas de fontes governamentais e livres, tomando como estudo de caso o incêndio no morro do Atacazo (29/09/2018). Foram processadas informações topográficas, meteorológicas e de combustível; As fichas topográficas foram obtidas no portal do Instituto Geográfico Militar; as informações meteorológicas, da estação Guamaní da Rede Metropolitana de Monitoramento Atmosférico de Quito e as informações sobre as fontes estimadas de combustível e cobertura vegetal foram estimadas com base nas categorias de vegetação e grau de alteração do mapa de cobertura e uso da terra do projeto de Mapeamento Temático na escala 1: 25000 do Equador, executado pelo Ministério da Agricultura Pecuária, Aquicultura e Pesca. Foram realizadas simulações no FlamMap das principais rotas e tempos de chegada do incêndio para dois casos: o Caso 1 contempla barreiras contra incêndio construídas com dados do OpenStreetMap; e o Caso 2 complementa essas informações com observações em campo. Imagens de satélite foram usadas para comparar a extensão do fogo real com as simulações, usando os coeficientes de Sorensen e o kappa de Cohen, obtendo 0,81 e 0,85 (Caso 1), e 0,78 e 0,81 (Caso 2), respectivamente. Esses resultados mostraram uma grande semelhança entre o comportamento do modelo e o incêndio real. Uma vez que o modelo foi validado, ele foi aplicado para estimar o comportamento do fogo em vários cenários de interesse; Verificou-se que o projeto de barreiras contra incêndio com base em simulações tem grande potencial para reduzir a área afetada por incêndio.
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